Global economic growth entering slowdown period
Considering changes in major factors such as technology, urbanization, population and environment, global economic growth is expected to experience a declining trend with slower growth rate long-term, the center said.
Developed economies’ overall growth is predicted to slow down further to about 1.7 percent — below the average growth rate over the past 50 years — while for developing countries, the annual average growth rate is expected to be 4.9 percent.
Over the next 15 years, some developing countries will continue their urbanization process. A new round of technology revolution and urbanization still carries potential for economic growth in some developing countries.
The global urbanization rate is expected to be 61.7 percent by 2035, becoming a key driver for future growth, the center asserted.
Meanwhile, a slump in population increases and growing aging populations will become a key factor dragging down economic growth in developed countries and some developing countries.
The global population is predicted to rise from 7.35 billion in 2015 to 8.89 billion in 2035 and 9.77 billion in 2050. The proportion of the aging population is expected to rise from 8.3 percent in 2015 to 13 percent in 2035 and 15.8 percent in 2050.
Over the next 15 years, global economy is expected to trend more toward multipolarity. By 2035, developing countries’ GDP will surpass developed economies’, contributing nearly 60 percent in global economy and investment.
The focus of global economic growth will shift from Europe and the United States to Asia and extend to other developing countries and regions, the center added.